2011 Japan Earthquake: Impacts on Pulp & Paper Industry (III)

2011 Japan Earthquake Aftermath: Tsunami Impacted Pulp & Paper Mills... Re-Building

Gustavo Iglesias Trabado

GIT Forestry Consulting SL - Consultoría y Servicios de Ingeniería Agroforestal - www.git-forestry.com - EUCALYPTOLOGICS

Gustavo Iglesias Trabado, International Forestry Consultant, CEO GIT Forestry Consulting / Analysis of Impacts of 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami on Japanese Timber Industry and Timber and Timber Product Flows in the Asia Pacific Region / Gustavo Iglesias Trabado, Director Ejecutivo de GIT Forestry Consulting / Analisis de Impactos del Terremoto y Tsunami de Japon 2011 en la Industria Forestal Japonesa y en los Flujos de Madera y Productos Forestales Industriales de la Region Asia Pacifico / Contact GIT Forestry Consulting SL / Gustavo Iglesias Trabado, Roberto Carballeira Tenreiro and Javier Folgueira Lozano / GIT Forestry Consulting SL, Consultoría y Servicios de Ingeniería Agroforestal, Lugo, Galicia, España, Spain / Eucalyptologics, information resources on Eucalyptus cultivation around the world / Eucalyptologics, recursos de informacion sobre el cultivo del eucalipto en el mundo

Three weeks after Japan was hit by the Great Tohoku Earthquake & Tsunami of March 2011 the efforts to overcome the worst for those damaged infrastructures and those impacted industrial hubs have been continuous, at the same time the overwhelming situation has forced Japan to cope simultaneously with a human catastrophe, a nuclear threat, an energy crisis & a heavily impacted logistics network spreading on an significant area of Honshū island, particularly in the Northeast.

We have previously outlined how the catastrophe has impacted the Japanese Pulp & Paper industry, according to reports of the companies experiencing direct damage in their industrial complexes, and according to analysts continuously monitoring the situation from several areas of the world to try to work out what the impacts could be for the global timber industry & supply chain. The general current consensus seems to be that Japan's dense network of pulp and paper mills, spreading all over the archipelago, has only been effected temporarily and in a localized fashion, being the short term loss of production capacity in the order of 10% total effective capacity of the previous years.

Also outlined, the impact of the earthquake, but maybe more importantly, the impact of the tsunami on the Japanese network of major & special shipping ports, some of which have been nearly destroyed or will probably not be normally operating in the short or medium term, and some of which are directly involved in forest products trade, be it internal movements of supplies and products, be it international export-import operations dealing on several strategic industrial sectors, including the timber industry activity.

Fig 1: 03/2011 Great Tōhoku Earthquake & Tsunami Impact on Japanese Pulp & Paper Industry: Tsunami Affected Japanese Pulp & Paper Mills and Forest Products Ports: Case Study 02 - NPG (March 29th 08:00 CET). Larger versions are available from GIT Forestry Consulting upon request (just contact us).

Even if the general prospects are then of significant but not critical damage for the Japanese Pulp & Paper industry as a whole, the virulence of the catastrophe in localized areas of Miyagi, Fukushima & Ibaraki Prefectures has left us all with impressive images of damaged infrastructure in the immediate aftermath of the catastrophe. This now includes high detail visual outlooks at the effected pulp & paper industrial hubs, and nearby forest products ports in some of the worst damaged areas.

RISI, the leading information provider for the global forest products industry, has reported yesterday that some of the Japanese Pulp & Paper Groups have had to categorically dismiss rumours about their mills being a wreck & not going to restart operations due to catastrophic damage. It seems that market panic has not much reason to be: pulp & paper mills are not Fukushima-type reactors, and it is always too soon to put coffins on them. Nothing better to check that up if rumours are true or not than taking a peek to the situation on the mills at bird's sight (except being right there in the ongoing efforts to clean up the mess, of course).

High Detail Satellital Imagery of the aftermath of the tsunami has been recently produced & kindly provided by the Mountain View Heroes at Google Inc. after the flyover of some interesting robotic birds of NASA, allowing the preparation of reasonably updated damage reports for the main impacted pulp & paper mills and their associated port infrastructures.

Fig 2: 03/2011 Great Tōhoku Earthquake & Tsunami Impact on Japanese Pulp & Paper Industry: Tsunami Affected Japanese Pulp & Paper Mills and Forest Products Ports: Case Study 02 - NPG (March 29th 08:00 CET). A Giant Size High Detail version able to be printed in sizes up to 400 x 200 cm is available from GIT Forestry Consulting upon request (just contact us).

Even if the general outlook equates a total mess, which is not surprising when waves of 10 meters height run over sea defenses and flood your factory with unprecedented force, mooring ships inland and moving impressive volumes of logs, chips, some building, and noticeable amounts of pulp & paper bales first towards the hinterland and later back offshore... it is maybe illustrative to think of any Japanese industrial complex as a Shogun Castle: if the outer gates are overwhelmed, the walls are breached, the stables burnt... and a wave of madness surrounds you... no total disaster happens if the storm does not reach the keep.

Still, even if the cores of such daily ballet-dancing complex industrial activity in each pulp & paper mill that was interrupted because of the shake & wave would last because of heavy damage to some of its parts... it is also maybe illustrative to keep in mind that current engineering features allow the build up of a brand new world class mill in less than 18 months from scratch, something that seems unlikely to be necessary for at least several of the Japanese cases, in which cleaning up and repairing seem to be the most likely actions taking place.

In addition, it has been confirmed to Eucalyptologics that expert task forces of pulp & paper engineers have been assembled after arrivals from overseas, and that these teams are now operating in joint efforts with Japanese engineers to repair damage and start the re-building process in several of the worst affected mills. The complexity of the task is no doubt impressive, but Japanese pulp & paper mill operators were stoically proceeding to the clean up of the big mess since the very moment the wave finally retreated, and have not stopped since then.

2011 Japan Earthquake & Tsunami Impact on Japanese Forestry Product Ports, Preliminary Assessment Map / Mapa preliminar de Impacto del Terremoto y Tsunami de Japon 2011 en los puertos de importacion y exportacion de productos forestales de Japon, en la industria de pulpa celulosica y de papel del Japon y en la importacion de astillas de madera de eucalipto a Japon / パルプ紙2011年の日本地震の影響の予備的な地図セルロース日本 / เยื่อแผ่นดินไหวญี่ปุ่นและแผนที่อุตสาหกรรมกระดาษ / Япония 2011 целлюлозно землетрясения и карта бумажной промышленности / اليابان اللب والورق زلزال 2011 خريطة صناعة / Mapa Preliminar de Impacto do Terramoto e Tsunami de Japão 2011, nos portos de importaçao e exportaçao de produtos florestais do Japão, na industria do papel e celulose do Japão e na importaçao de chips de madeira de eucalipto do Japão / Gustavo Iglesias Trabado, GIT Forestry Consulting SL, Consultoria y Servicios de Ingenieria Agroforestal, Lugo, Galicia, España, Spain / Eucalyptologics, Information resources on sustainable eucalypt cultivation worldwide / Recursos de informacion sobre el cultivo sostenible del eucalipto en el mundo

Fig 3: 03/2011 Great Tōhoku Earthquake Impact on Japanese Pulp & Paper Industry: Tsunami Affected Japanese Forest Products Ports & Timber Industry Logistics Summary Map, a preliminary outlook at import-export infrastructures affected (March 21th 21:00 CET). A larger version is available from GIT Forestry Consulting upon request (just contact us).

So, maybe the key question is not anymore "will the mills restart operations or not"... but "when will they restart operations". A time factor. Only time can answer that question at the moment. But, even if you have reasonable doubts on the implications of each possibility, it is maybe important to remember that "rebuilding" is probably a term at least as common and embeded in Japanese minds as "building". Lads, it is not Sparta. It is Japan, Land of Shoguns... and Zaibatsu.

*End of Update*

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