2011 Japan Earthquake: Impacts on Pulp and Paper Industry (I)

2011 Japan Earthquake Aftermath: Critical situation may affect Japanese Pulp & Paper production

Gustavo Iglesias Trabado
GIT Forestry Consulting SL - Consultoría y Servicios de Ingeniería Agroforestal - www.git-forestry.com - EUCALYPTOLOGICS

The Earthquake offshore Honshu Island in Japan this morning may have affected severely or moderately the area hosting a significant part of the capacity for pulp and paper making of the country, after reaching intensities reaching 8.9 Richter. The epicenter, 170 km away from Sendai in the North Eastern coast of Japan and the devastation caused by the quake and the 10 meter wave height Tsunami suggest that at least 10 major pulp & paper industrial complexes standing in a radius lower than 250 kilometers may have been directly damaged or effected.

Over 25 additional Japanese integrated pulp and paper mill industrial complexes stand in a radius lower than 500 km from the epicenter of the Sindai Earthquake and may have also been impacted.

Fig 1: 03/2011 Earthquake Impact on Japanese Pulp & Paper Industry Map, a preliminary outlook to industrial complexes potentially affected (March 11th 17:00 CET). A larger version is available from GIT Forestry Consulting upon request (just contact us).

With a population of nearly 127 million souls, a per capita paper consumption ratio around 250 kg of paper per person and year, and one of the highest ratios of paper recovery and recycling in the world, the potential impacts of heavy industrial damage on the pulp and paper production chain of Japan may significantly effect the global supply and demand of recovered paper, local cellulosic pulp, market pulp and several segments of types of "virgin" paper during 2011.

This preliminary assessment of potential impacts on pulp and paper in the aftermath of Japan's 2011 Earthquake has been already shared by Eucalyptologics with relevant organizations in Japan, the European Union and the United States to help work out the details and predict the future evolution of this strategic economic and industrial sector for all.

From Eucalyptologics, we would like to express our condolences and our sympathy to the people of Japan. Few nations are so prepared to overcome such a catastrophe as you are: Japan may be flooded, but it will not sink. Japan may be shaken, but it will not crash down. Today, we all are Japanese.

We will try to keep you updated with any available information as soon as possible in GIT Forestry's blog, but you can also reach Eucalyptologics updates via Twitter and Facebook.

UPDATES: 4 UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED

UPDATE 1: JAPANESE PULP & PAPER INDUSTRY DAMAGE REPORT (14/03/2011 12:00 CET)

Predictably, the double catastrophic event (8.9 Richter Miyagiken-Oki Earthquake + 10 meter Tsunami) has caused significant impacts on the Pulp & Paper mills in NorthEastern Japan, especially those located in Iwati, Miyagi, Akita, Fukushima & Tochigi Prefectures, but also temporarily effected other industrial complexes in Central Japan, at distances of 400 km from the earthquake epicenter.

Fig 2: 14/03/2011 Earthquake Impact on Japanese Pulp & Paper Industry Map, a First Damage Report to Industrial Complexes Effected (March 14th 12:00 CET). A larger version is available from GIT Forestry Consulting upon request (just contact us).

According to the earliest reports, the heaviest damage includes flooding of factories by the tsunami, structural damage, fire damage and pulp & paper stock losses. At least 7 mills have stopped operations in the immediate aftermath of the catastrophe.

In addition to the damage & problems within the mills, four main threats compromise the normal industrial activity of these and other factories: (1) Collapse of land transport infrastructure due to earthquake damage; (2) Collapse of sea transport infrastructure due to port damage due to the tsunami; (3) Power outages & electricity quotas available while Japanese authorities deal with the nuclear energy capacity off the grid; and (4) Potential nuclear risks if the situation at Fukushima-Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant deteriorates.

We will try to keep you updated with further developments as soon as newer information is available.

UPDATE 2: JAPANESE PULP & PAPER INDUSTRY DAMAGE REPORT (14/03/2011 21:00 CET)

At least 13 Pulp & Paper mill industrial complexes are reported to have been impacted by the Miyagiken-Oki Earthquake and aftermath Tsunami, forcing a stop to all operations. Since then, 2 have restarted operation, leaving the impacted integrated mill toll at a minimum of 11.

Fig 3: 14/03/2011 Earthquake Impact on Japanese Pulp & Paper Industry Map, a First Damage Report to Industrial Complexes Effected (March 14th 21:00 CET). A larger version is available from GIT Forestry Consulting upon request (just contact us).

With the keen help of RISI, the leading information provider for the global forest industry, which provided the missing pieces of the initial puzzle, a first estimation of medium term impact on Japan's pulp & paper production capacity stands at 3.4 Million tonnes of cellulosic pulp (several grades), and also 3.4 million tonnes of paper, paperboard and carboard (different grades) for a total of 6.8 Million tonnes /year of industrial capacity impacted.

It is expected this first initial estimated impact may increase in the short term after the inspections of other 15 pulp & paper mills within those areas experiencing severe or moderate damage from the Earthquake are completed.

We will try to keep you updated with further developments as soon as newer information is available.

UPDATE 3: JAPANESE PORTS DAMAGE REPORT (21/03/2011 21:00 CET)

Fig 4: 03/2011 Earthquake Impact on Japanese Pulp & Paper Industry: Tsunami Affected Japanese Forest Products Ports & Timber Industry Logistics Map, a preliminary outlook to import-export infrastructures affected (March 21th 21:00 CET). A larger version is available from GIT Forestry Consulting upon request (just contact us).

Fig 6: 03/2011 Earthquake Impact on Japanese Pulp & Paper Industry: Tsunami Affected Japanese Pulp & Paper Mills & Forest Products Ports: Case Study 03 (March 21th 21:00 CET). A larger version is available from GIT Forestry Consulting upon request (just contact us).

UPDATE 4: JAPANESE PULP & PAPER MILL INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX + FORESTRY PRODUCTS PORT DAMAGE REPORT (29/03/2011 08:00 CET)

Fig 1: 03/2011 Great Tōhoku Earthquake & Tsunami Impact on Japanese Pulp & Paper Industry: Tsunami Affected Japanese Pulp & Paper Mills and Forest Products Ports: Case Study 02 - NPG (March 29th 08:00 CET). Larger versions are available from GIT Forestry Consulting upon request (just contact us).

Fig 2: 03/2011 Great Tōhoku Earthquake & Tsunami Impact on Japanese Pulp & Paper Industry: Tsunami Affected Japanese Pulp & Paper Mills and Forest Products Ports: Case Study 02 - NPG (March 29th 08:00 CET). A Giant Size High Detail version able to be printed in sizes up to 400 x 200 cm is available from GIT Forestry Consulting upon request (just contact us).

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© 2007-2011 Gustavo Iglesias Trabado & Associates. Please contact us if you want to use all or part of this text and photography elsewhere. We like to share, but we do not like rudeness.